BFFs no more, Pakistan

First I have to laugh at the ironic black humour of this:

One of the participants of the rally, Abdullah Ismail, passed away after he was taken to Mayo Hospital. Witnesses said he had complained of feeling unwell from the smoke from US flags burnt at the rally.

That's out of sequence in the linked article with the below, but ya gotta lead with something like that. The "meat" follows:

Hafiz Saeed alleged that the film, Innocence of Muslims, had been produced with the backing of US establishment. He said the director, the producer and all those involved in the production and release of the movie must be hanged publicly. “The US must make a law against blasphemy – or we will not let the US consulates in Pakistan function,” he said.

As dismal as we are at responding to the threat of Islam, I don't see that happening any time soon. Also, as things are at the moment (protests and embassy assaults all over the "Muslim" world) I think this is an easy "either/or" choice.

He said a resolution condemning the movie in the parliament was not enough. Instead, President Asif Ali Zardari must announce jihad against countries like the US that supported attacks on Islam. The Organisation of Islamic Countries Conference should announce a boycott of US goods. Ijazul Haq, the PML-Z chief, said the people had shown their loyalty to Islam. He said the government leader’s silence was shameful. He said no one had dared commit blasphemy during his father Ziaul Haq’s rule.

There we are (emphasis mine), the "j" word which useful idiots in the West refuse to understand. My response to that: "Fucking bring it, assholes." I encourage everyone in Pakistan who isn't an idiot to get the hell out if you can before these guys get their way, because I don't see things improving even if all of us infidels pack up and let the region fall (completely) apart.

It's late, but nonetheless still diplomatic triage/cost-benefit time. Afghanistan: FUBAR, leave now. Pakistan: circling the drain, leave soonest. Egypt: c. 70M people who don't like us, tread carefully with essential staff only. Libya: either "you broke it you bought it" or (my advice) write it off after busting the heads of the people who killed the US Ambassador. Tunisia: we can and should help them smack down the Salafists as there are enough people there who don't want them.

For that small sample we're 1 for 5 and I could keep going but things don't get a lot brighter with the trouble spots of Asia and the Mid East. The upshot is that "we" have limited resources and should spend them defending our actual interests and friends (e.g. Israel, Tunisia) and let the rest of them do whatever they want within their own borders, much as is happening in Syria right now.

Some people wring their hands (when they are actually paying attention) and think we should intervene there a la Libya. I say: take a look at how well that's worked out (and Iraq, and Afghanistan) and tell me again that we should take sides in this thing. Turkey, Iran and Saudi are all players in that region, I say leave them to it. Hell, those three are players in Iraq too so leave them to it. Afghanistan has China, Iran, India, Pakistan and Russia to tug at it, so why are we dragging things out.

When I was in Afghanistan five years ago these "Green on Blue" killings were essentially unheard of, now there's at least one a month. When it's at the point when you suspend training with the host nation because you're afraid they'll kill your trainers you're long past doing any good.

Back to Pakistan, where I began this. While there are elements of Pakistani society which are not inimical to our own, if we have to choose between them and, say, their great rival India, we can and should work with the latter. India is a bulwark against both radical Islam and China growing unchecked, both of which are in our interests.

Undoubtedly the Chinese would see this differently, but China shares the first problem, so all of us getting along is a plan if we can swing it. I encourage you to read "The Clash of Civilizations" by Samuel Huntington if you haven't already for a bit more in-depth realpolitik than you will get in a few posts here. There is both the original article from 1993 and the book, both worth your time.

Speaking of threats to Consular staff...

Some disaffected Copt in the US has made some anti-Islam video (I can totally see where this came from) and people are dying again:

The US ambassador to Libya is among four Americans killed in an attack on the US consulate in the eastern Libyan city of Benghazi, President Barack Obama has confirmed.
Unidentified armed men stormed the grounds on Tuesday night in a protest over a US-produced film that is said to insult the Prophet Muhammad.

I can't say this is a big surprise; the "democracy" we've enabled in Libya is an armed free-for-all. You will note the lack of embassy attacks while Qaddafi was running the place. I'm so glad we helped bring things to this point; I guess we can hope that it gets better, but things are looking pretty Mad Max for the near future.

Egypt has done a similarly ineffective job of defending the US embassy, thankfully without lethal result, and the Muslim Brotherhood (in its' English Twitter feed at least) has condemned the attack. The problem as always is with hard-case Muslims, of which there is a nigh-inexhaustible supply in places like Egypt. The offending video was put on the Internet (what isn't?) and it's not like it was beamed from space onto the sides of the Pyramids and to the mobile phone and TV of every Muslim in the world. Even if it was, that is merely a nuisance not exactly "eye for an eye" stuff.

Canada cut ties to Iran for a bunch of reasons, but one of them was a belief (based on the storming of the UK embassy late last year) that Iran was not serious about protecting consular territory and staff. It looks like we can put a few other places in that category, although to be fair these things sometimes catch host governments by surprise. I won't give Iran the benefit of that doubt, as they have a bit of a track record of storming embassies...

Particularly disgusting in this case is the declaration of the US Embassy in Cairo apologizing for "the abuse of freedom of speech". The inside dhimmi threat of "our" people kowtowing to "radical" (read: observant) Muslims is FAR more dangerous than any number of rioting protesters in foreign lands, even armed ones. The loss of an embassy and/or staff is a tactical loss, but at least serves as a litmus test of who our friends really are. When Western governments start apologizing for violence against THEM, that is a disaster.

Fortunately in this case Hillary has come out strongly against the Cairo Embassy "statement" so things at least aren't any worse in the big picture than they were before the attacks. It is interesting to speculate on whether there would have been such a strong repudiation had the White House not been in the middle of an (actual) election campaign. As I write this I expect (as do many others) that the latest paroxysm of Islamic rage over something stupid is not yet spent.

A stick in the spokes of the "Axis of Evil"

A couple of days ago, the Government of Canada cut diplomatic relations with the Islamic republic of Iran, closing our embassy and booting out theirs. I say: about bloody time.

There are the usual (Prime Minister of Canada) Harper-haters who seem to love every repressive Islamic regime the world over and have been chiming in on this, but the truth is that Iran's current government is NOT a friend we want. Working off the "company you keep" model of character, let's see who Iran's friends are; this should convince most people that we are right to keep our distance.

1. Syria, specifically the Assad regime. Do I really need to go into detail here?
2. Hezbollah. Regardless of the general anti-Israel bent of much of the media and the Left, Hezbollah is not the sort of neighbour anyone wants, at least not if they want to do things their own way. Of course the usual suspects don't care as long as it's just "Zionists" who are being killed...
3. China. China is all about business and expanding their influence, and as close to amoral about who they deal with as you care to get. China is also blocking the UN Security Council on votes to do something about the mess in Syria.
4. Venezuela: Chavez and his cronies are big fans and have gotten a lot of arms and training from the Revolutionary Guard and Hezbollah affiliates.

This gives you the idea. I was going to include Russia on that list, but they have been distancing themselves from Iran for a while now. I have said it before and I say it again now: the Iranian PEOPLE are not our enemy, just the current regime (which many Iranians have been tortured, raped and killed for opposing). If anything this move by my government is long overdue. When they get a decent government back in we'll reestablish regular relations; until then there is no point in even talking to them.

And if Israel/whoever else attacks Iran? I don't think going after their nuke program is worthwhile, but bombing the #%&k out of the IRGC would be a step to the good for everyone. Well, everyone we might want to help, anyway.