Dropping the gloves?

Ok, a lot has been happening over the first few weeks of 2007, so I thought I’d wait a few days and collect a bit of it.

Bush’s speech at the beginning of January was widely regarded as a last-gasp effort to salvage something from the debacle of Iraq, and in effect it is. However what it also is, (and this is less reported) is a move to finally do things the way they should have been done in the first place.

This “surge” business in Iraq is only part of the picture; there seems to be a different approach to the whole “ War on Terror” thing, suspiciously like what I was advocating a while ago. This does not, by the way, imply that I’m the only genius to come up with this approach, since nobody’s been consulting me, but it’s always nice to have your ideas validated, although to what extent remains to be seen.

In no particular chronological order, here are what I consider to be the harbingers of a sustainable and effective policy against the enemies of Western civilization. The Americans hitting the Iranian Liaison office in Iraq is a step in the right direction, and proof that someone has the cojones to finally deal with the Iranians the way they should be dealt with.

Invading Iran is a BAD IDEA, not because it wouldn’t knock the loonies out of power, but because the world doesn’t need a second Iraq right now. Iran actually has potential to be civilized again, since the only thing stopping it right now is its’ government. The reasons for hitting Iran aren’t news to anyone who’s actually been following that part of the world, but it’s interesting to me that it’s happening now. Anything that reduces the prestige and clout of the current Iranian regime can only help other factions in the country, and will possibly allow them to clean their own house.

Part, if not most or all, of the reason for the current approach is the widening Sunni-Shia split, this being the Sandmonkey’s take on it. The Saudis have been publicly stating for a while now that they will back the Sunnis in Iraq to counter Iran’s influence. If they’re saying this, it means it’s already been happening for some time. Again it’s most likely that America’s buddies in the House of Saud are bankrolling (directly or indirectly) the killing of Americans. We know that all of that aid to the Sunni factions isn’t going to fighting the Shia alone…

The recent action in Somalia points more clearly to the sort of plan that I’ve had for some time. Use good Int to back up your local allies with the firepower and/or precision action that is required to take out the key players, worst threats and targets of opportunity. It’s still pricy, (life is expensive and military action is no exception) but the risks are controlled, the commitment is flexible, and if you do it right, nobody of any consequence will have anything to complain about. In the case of Somalia, in the short term the UIC has been smashed, and the immediate threat of another Islamist theocracy in the world is removed. The Ethiopians have their problems, but their interests and ours line up here, so working with them has so far been win-win.

I was getting pretty bored and tired of world events, but things are becoming interesting again, mainly because there’s a big, probably historic, shift occurring in the Middle East at the very least and that’s always interesting to watch unfold. When the Saudis are bucking OPEC and boosting oil production to depress oil prices for the sole purpose of screwing Iran economically, you know things are on the move.

I make no predictions, but it’s obvious that Iran has stuck its’ neck out a long way and there are parties interested in taking a chop at it. The Americans are starting to talk to North Korea again, and the fact that the Iranians are in Pyongyang at the same time means there is some jockeying going on. If the Americans manage to split North Korea from the “Axis of Evil” (however unlikely that is) it would be a good way to start isolating Iran’s leadership. A big “if” and a bit of a job, but if the Americans are willing to really try it’s do-able. Of course this ignores the vacuum of strong leadership in US domestic politics, but I’ll stay out of that…