Democracy, one party style.

Mugabe has managed to ruin a country with significant potential, likely making more than a few blacks of his generation think that they were actually better off under Ian Smith's racist minority regime. I have no numbers for that of course, but it's unavoidable with the mess that Rob and his cronies have managed to make.

That aside, it's obvious to all that his time is up, and assuming (a bold move at this time) that he will not call out the army to crush his opposition, an exit strategy is in order. In this era of war-crimes trials and international tribunals thereof, the exit strategy of tyrants of all stripes is no small matter.

If you know that you won't be allowed to fade away to Switzerland or wherever, instead being arraigned and at least jailed if not executed, why would you give up gracefully? When the votes are rigged or the results denied by the incumbents, some sort of revolution, more or less violent, is the only way to go.

Getting rid of Mugabe will require some sort of deal if he's not to end up as compost in Tsvangiari's garden (not that I think he would do that). There was a lot of denial that any such thing was in the works, but I doubt anyone on the ground there is fooled by it.

The real point here is the limits of the democratic process in practice. If the results of the voting won't be honoured, it's not a democracy in any way shape or form. If you want to re-introduce democracy after an extended period with a Mugabe, Pinochet, etc, you'll have to be prepared to be pragmatic and offer a deal to avoid the necessity to pry power from their cold, dead hands.

I use Pinochet as an example of this being more or less successfully done; there was no bloodshed (or smothering!), he stepped down, and there has been a successful transition to a democratic government in Chile. Of course Pinochet did a much better job of managing the country he violently took over than Mugabe has, but the general principle applies.

As I write this (9 April 2008) the mess in Zimbabwe continues, and my off-the-cuff feeling is that transition from one-man/party rule will require an actual revolution more often than not. which doesn't augur well for the roots of that democracy, but nothing's perfect.