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Sunday 25 January 2009

No "Hama rules" vs Hamas

This article in Speigel Online is a bit disjointed, as if it is trying to cover all viewpoints at once, but it dredged up something I had forgotten the name of, that is how properly deal with the likes of Hamas.

Some commentators have suggested that "Hama Rules" are "no rules", but I strenuously disagree. The rules are "we'll give you enough rope, then hang, draw, and quarter you". A good synopsis is, as often, to be found at Wikipedia.

To give you the general idea:

According to Amnesty International, the Syrian military bombed the old streets of the city from the air to facilitate the introduction of military forces and tanks through the narrow streets, where homes were crushed by tanks during the first four days of fighting. They also claim that the Syrian military pumped poison gas into buildings where insurgents were said to be hiding.

The army was mobilized, and Hafez again sent Rifaat's special forces and Mukhabarat agents to the city. After encountering fierce resistance, Rifaat's forces ringed the city with artillery and shelled it for three weeks. Afterward, military and internal security personnel were dispatched to comb through the rubble for surviving Brothers and their sympathizers.[4] Then followed several weeks of torture and mass executions of suspected rebel sympathizers, killing many thousands, known as the Hama Massacre. Estimates of casualties vary from an estimated 7000 to 35,000 people killed, including about 1000 soldiers. [5] Journalist Robert Fisk, who was in Hama shortly after the massacre, estimated fatalities as high as 10,000.[6] The New York Times estimated the death toll as up to 20,000.[2] According to Thomas Friedman[7] Rifaat later boasted of killing 38,000 people.

A wholesale massacre in Gaza was never on the cards, but I feel that the Israelis made their point, and balanced that with the political angle in deciding to withdraw. Hamas is particularly thuggish and stupid, so I'm sure there will be a Round Two, it's only a question of when, and that's the real test for Israel's politicians.

Israel definitely lost vs. Hezbollah in 2006, but in that case it was a Pyrrhic victory for Hez. Israel made life miserable enough for anywhere that launched a missile, etc. at them that Lebs of all stripes are much happier letting the sleeping IDF dog lie. The IDF for it's part took the time to lick it's wounds and accomplished much the same result in Gaza but without embarrassing itself again.

Laying the temporary smackdown on your enemies is not a defeat unless you said you would eliminate them. The only way the Israelis can "win" this sort of thing is to go house-to-house, top-to-bottom and kill anyone who even looks at them funny. With 90% of the population then dead, a viable two-and-a-half state solution is probably workable. Doesn't seem likely with that sort of condition, but hope springs eternal for our political elites.

Hamas is a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, and it is to be noted that Syria has had no significant problems with Islamic wackos since 1982. It worked there because Syria didn't give a rat's ass what Amnesty International, etc. thought of their methods, but they still paid a (tolerable) international political price. If the IDF did this the Americans would lose their nerve and pull the plug on the billions in aid that gets sent to Israel, and then, well, nothing good would come of it.

In and Out Clever; pretty close this time, so we'll see if Israel has really re-learned how to do this sort of thing. Der Speigel can try to be all things to all people, but Israel can't do that and survive. Even those who dislike Israel have to ask themselves if they'd like Hamas running the whole place. Not even a choice if you ask me, but the clowns with the Hamas banners in the West never do ask for some reason...

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