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Monday, 11 April 2011

Israel, Iranian influence, and flying pigs

Jerusalem (CNN) -- Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said Sunday that Israel was willing to stop attacks on Gaza if the Palestinians stop firing into southern Israel.


"If they stop firing at our communities, then we will stop firing. If they stop firing altogether, then there will be quiet," Barak said in an interview on Israel Radio.


It really is as simple as that. This should not have been a news story, as this has been Israeli policy for years. They pulled out of Gaza in 2005, and if the Palestinians really wanted peace, they'd have it.


Yes, they'd have less land than in 1948, but that's what happens when your ethnic cleansing backfires on you because your victims fight back. Every war the Arabs have started (or precipitated, if you want to be pedantic about 1967) has lost them territory. Ask the Germans about what happens to territory when you start and lose wars.


This ties to my previous post, as this intractable conflict has been held for years as "poisoning" Arab/Muslim relations with Israel. It has been an excuse, no more, and now that the troublesome Hamas regime is in Iran's pocket the Saudis and other Sunni Arabs will have more in common with Israel than with either of the Palestinian factions. Add Hezbollah to that mix and Israel becomes a strategic ally of the House of Saud.


It took no genius to see this coming, but it took toppling Saddam Hussein (remember him?) and a lot of Iranian/Syrian meddling to bring things to this pass. There are lots of things that can/will change, and as always faster and in ways different than many expect. Wither Egypt without Mubarak? It's unlikely they'll repudiate the peace treaty with Israel, but if democracy takes root all bets are off. Assad in Syria could fall, but it's unlikely that would make much difference to Israel's security situation.


What I'm waiting to see is the day when Saudi money replaces American to shore up Israel. That sounds outlandish on the face of it, but it makes a lot of sense. That (making sense) isn't a a factor in American "foreign policy" but in more traditional parts of the world the survival of the government is taken more personally. If King Abdullah can sell his elite on the necessity of Israel as a military bulwark then it'll happen. If Donald Trump becomes the next US president we may see some coherent US policy in the region, but of the two possibilities laid out here I'll be more shocked by that if it happens.

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