The one prediction I'll make for 2012 is that it probably won't start out boring. Taking the Mediterranean/Middle East/South Asia alone, there is unrest and tension from the Pillars of Hercules to North Korea. Algeria is a barely contained powder keg, Libya is a disaster waiting for extremists to take over, and Islamists are posed to or have taken power in Tunisia and Egypt. That's just North Africa.
Moving into the Med, the Turks are firing into the sea adjacent to Cypriot/Israeli gas developments and one of their sabre waving exercises will likely result in an armed confrontation with Israel unless they back off. That gets interesting, as Turkey is still a NATO country,and Article 5 of the North Atlantic Charter would compel Canada and most of Europe as well as the USA to come to Turkey's aid. In practice I don't see that happening, but the Israelis have too much at stake to let the Turks push them around, so Turkey either backs away or there's a regional war.
NATO's involvement in Afghanistan is winding down, and Pakistan is moving firmly into the "enemy" camp as it destabilizes (further), so lots of potential for mayhem. I skipped Iran, but moving back to them, a lot of people are trying to figure out what game they're trying to play right now. The talk about closing the straits of Hormuz is madness and must be for domestic consumption. Even at that it's messed up, as the Iranians know damned well that even the fading US could hand them their ass in less than a day, leave off what the Gulf Sates and Israel would do to them.
Smashing Iranian military power would not be difficult, and since no-one's even thinking of invading the place I see no upside to them playing tough. Perhaps they got overly bold after bringing in that US drone, in which case some serious questions need to be asked about who is in charge of what in Iran these days. Flaunting (distant) pictures of a US carrier group is not even close to being able to seriously threaten it, so bad decisions abound in Tehran these days.
So, get your money and place your bets. I haven't even mentioned the looming holy war in Nigeria, but think of it as a cross between the Lebanese Civil War with the mess that was/is Iraq, with a population of 160M people. To be more local, any Sierra Leone/Liberia etc. machete-waving necklacing atrocity-fest on a massive scale. Oh yeah, and Sudan is bombing South Sudan already...
Lots to look forward to, and I've only hit the most obvious stuff. Hopefully your New Year doesn't involve any of these places, but in any event, the best of luck.
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