Paying the bus you throw your allies under

The Obama administration intends to resume funding for Egypt’s military, despite congressional restrictions and objections from human rights and democracy advocates.

For months, the money for Egypt — more than $1.5 billion, with the bulk earmarked for the military — has been withheld amid that country’s crackdown on pro-democracy groups, including several U.S.-based organizations with close ties to political parties in Washington.

A law passed by Congress in December forbids funding unless the State Department certifies that Egypt is making progress on basic freedoms and human rights.

But Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton is close to announcing plans to bypass those restrictions on national security grounds, according to senior administration officials and others who have been briefed on the deliberations but were not authorized to speak publicly. The administration believes failure to provide the funds would risk worsening already fraying ties with Egypt’s leaders, most notably the Egyptian military, which still controls the country.

At least I'm far from being alone in thinking that this is a bad idea. Warts and all, Mubarak was the Americans' only reason to fund the Egyptian military, as he took Sadat's baton of peace with Israel and carried it for 30 years. Once again the USA has abandoned an immediately politically inconvenient (and admittedly at least partially despotic) ally to forces inimical to America's national interests.

This is the trajectory of last year's "Arab Spring", and the 1979 Iran (Islamic) revolution should provide a model for what is likely to come in most of these countries. The Egyptians won't start another war with Israel (outcome is certain anyway) but they can be miserable and descend into a factional Islamist terrorist-supporting state.

The idea that the US will maintain any useful influence with the Egyptian power structure is wishful thinking at best, putting arms into the hands of people who will use them against you and your interests at worst. Oh well, it's not like they haven't done it before; there is that old saw about doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results...

Yes, I've not been up to too much here and at times I feel badly about that. However (and I know I've said this before) it often feels that I've nothing new to say. Anyway, I'm less busy than I have been for the last couple of months so there will likely be more from me here. You have been warned...