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Monday 21 July 2014

Make a desert and call it peace


The IDF is hip-deep in Gaza again, and just like last time there is no real end in sight:

The bitter fighting in the Shejaiya neighbourhood in the eastern part of Gaza City, which has caused heavy civilian casualties and the deaths of some 13 Israeli soldiers, could mark a turning point in this crisis.

That, sadly, does not necessarily mean that the conflict has reached its peak.

The Israeli military still believes that it has more of its mission to complete.

Indeed, Hamas fighters may be emboldened by their ability to inflict pain on the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), and they too may not want an immediate halt.

But the fact that the battle has moved into a heavily-populated urban area with reports in some cases of house-to-house fighting means that the civilian death toll will rise markedly.

With it will come added pressure from outside to end the operation once and for all.

The "pull back to the 1967 borders" two-state solution is the default position of the UN, but the current fighting is an example of what Israel has to look forward to if they do that. Gaza was vacated by Israel in 2005, and the reward for that has been constant terrorism from the "liberated" territory.

I 100% guarantee that if the Palestinians stopped trying to kill them and behaved like civilized neighbours (see Jordan for an example) public opinion in Israel would swing away from the ultra-Zionist settlers and find compromise on territorial issues. 1967 borders aren't going to happen (Syria ain't getting the Golan back and East Jerusalem probably isn't going anywhere) but trade would normalize and some permanent borders could be agreed on.

"[E]nd the operation once and for all" huh? There is only one way that would happen, and the current term for that is a choice between "ethnic cleansing" and "genocide". In any other age if a more powerful nation had a neighbour like Hamas, the entire population would be put to the sword to remove an existential threat. That's the only way to solve a problem like this, as Ender Wiggen could tell you.

As the linked article states, there are a lot of differences between this operation and the last one (Cast Lead) in 2009. Hamas' weaponry has upgraded across the board, from longer range rockets which can reach pretty much all of Israel to cutting-edge anti-armour weapons in the street fighting. The former is unacceptable, the latter a tactical problem which will increase Israeli casualties, and might under other circumstances have curtailed what is essentially a punitive raid.

What completely changes the game are the infiltration tunnels radiating out from Gaza. The purpose of these is as sally ports to run attack and kidnap groups out into Israel. The blatantly murderous intent these display is something no government could ignore (and expect to survive), and Netanyahu has a real challenge on his hands.

If relations with Egypt were actually good (although they aren't terrible at present) Israel could co-ordinate with them for a set of huge transient camps, and push the entire population out of Gaza long enough to search and destroy any jihadi/Hamas types who really want to fight (read: die) and more importantly, the entire arsenal and all of the tunnels. If you're not allowed to kill them all, you can certainly cripple their ability to hurt you, it's just a question of how much of the latter the IDF can accomplish this time around.

International, especially UN, pressure to cease operations is unlikely to sway the Israeli government (or people) as Israel has few friends there and those friends still have their back. Any slackening of pressure strengthens Hamas' position, so now we wait and see who blinks first. Whatever happens, it won't be "once and for all".

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