Here we go again, Lebanon.

Lebanon is spinning out of what precarious control it was in (again). My apologies to my Leb friends, but your beautiful home country is a basket case and it’s going to get worse, far more likely than not. [note: since I wrote this initially, the army and the government of Lebanon have caved to most of Hezbollah's demands, so we'll see where it goes from there. (10 May)]

(The title link incidentally is to the main page of the "Debka File" an always interesting look at this part of the world from an Israeli perspective. I can't link to the particular stories, but they have interesting claims to inside information, especially to Iran.)

Ever since fighting the out-of-shape IDF to a stalemate in 2006, Hezbollah has been rebuilding its networks and arms caches, infiltrating every level of the Lebanese government and Army, and has not even been slowed down by the useless UNFIL troops vacationing in sunny south Lebanon.

While I can appreciate the delicate position the government and the army is in, it’s curious to see at what point these preparations for another crack at Israel/coup d’état were judged to have gone too far. This coms network can’t have been a secret to anyone, it was too damned big, and if Hezbollah is building it it’s not for the greater good. That whole fiasco at the Beirut airport with the cameras and the crooked head of security was also predictable in view of the importance of the airport for Iranian arms shipments.

Regardless, things have come to a head, and can rapidly get a lot worse. As I write this the Israelis haven’t directly involved themselves, but if I were running things over there they soon would. That said, this is where their poor treatment of those who should be their allies will work against them once again.

When the IDF pulled out of the buffer zone in south Lebanon in 200, they threw their allies in the South Lebanon Army to the wolves. Had the Israeli government supported the SLA after the pullout, there would be no Hezbollah fortress in the south of Lebanon, and they would have motivated allies who would be fighting on their own ground when push inevitably came to shove.

Well they didn’t so they don’t, and here we are. What would be the best strategic move for Israel right is to tactically hit Hezbollah in the south while it is distracted dealing with the government and other forces. You know the war is coming, (just like in 1967…) and hitting your sworn enemy while his other enemies are distracting him is a solid plan anytime.

This would also force Hez to divide their forces and conform to your initiative which is better than waiting for them to be ready to fight you. These are the basics from Sun Tzu on down, and they’re no less true now than when Sunny learned them himself. Subduing the enemy without fighting may be the acme of skill, but allowing them to defeat your potential/de facto allies in detail before they turn on you is the likely outcome if the Israelis were to try that here.

This could happen, but there is the matter of the UN. UNFIL troops have been quite ready to point things at the IDF planes, etc., while at the same time turning and running every time Hezbollah tells them to keep their collective nose out of things. This is pure speculation, but based on past IDF practice, if the French (for example) were to radar illuminate IDF planes on bombing runs, I can see those same planes going Wild Weasel on their ass.

It’s not a nice thing to say about theoretically allied nations, but if the UN troops there won’t do what they are supposed to do (e.g. prevent Hezbollah from re-militarizing the border zone) then they’d better get the hell out of the way if the shooting starts. If they’d had the cajones to prevent said buildup, there would be no shooting to avoid, but effective action is not what the UN is known for.

Allowing Hezbollah to have complete control of Lebanon is not in the interests of anyone besides Iran and Syria; neither is a country which am I anxious to see achieve their aims, nor should you be. This represents a good opportunity to give them a real bloody nose and I’ll be watching to see if any of the major "blue team" players (read: Israel and America) think so too.

On a purely personal note, this one is my 100th post on this blog, so a round-number milestone for "Arithmetic on the Frontier" for those keeping track.