Battle of the Bulge

Today I'm aiming in the general direction of the future of Western countries, staying close to home (Canada, specifically Quebec) to look at the demographic imbalance and expectations for the future.  In other words, wherever this takes me.  According to Statistics Canada, deaths will start to outnumber births in Canada c. 2030, i.e. the near future.  A quarter-century after that the population is projected to be about 42 million.  Here looks like a good spot to wander into the minefield of immigration policy so I shall start there.

It is obvious to sensible people (a rare breed, alas) that we need immigrants, but not just anyone.  Criminals, the mentally or seriously ill, the just plain stupid, we can grow our own, we don't need to import them.  We are looking for people with some kind of skill and/or a good general education including a functional knowledge of English or French (but really English for anywhere outside of Quebec, let's face it) and a desire and ability to go where the work is.

I remember a university class over 20 years ago where this subject came up, and I said something to the effect of the above.  I was promptly branded a "racist" for wanting people with education and skills, the accuser's (stated) assumption that these people could only come from Europe.  As I said not word one about source country, who exactly is the racist here?  I dismembered her quite handily in the brief debate which followed but I'm sure she's running some government department or molding young minds somewhere these days.

The young (and not-so-young) minds marching around Montreal right now are looking into the yawning chasm of the Boomer- Gen X - Gen Y crossover and those working on useless Humanities degrees (the bulk of the ones on the streets) are wondering what's in it (the system) for them.  Good question, but I don't think rampaging through the streets and getting yourself a criminal record is going to improve your prospects.

They are bafflingly getting more support these days, and I suppose we can lay this at the Premier's feet.  The "emergency law" they passed was redundant and just gave the protesters something to rally against.  These things need to be dealt with firmly from the get-go and the vacillation of the government in the early days allowed things to get out of hand.

That however is tactical, and it's the strategic situation which needs looking at.  There is currently a bulge in the population creating an oversupply of labour.  However, just like the bulge which a snake's meal creates, this will eventually pass.  The question is "when" and the answer is not encouraging for these "students".  The tail end of the Baby Boom hit 15 years old (entry to the workforce) in 1981, which means they won't hit the new retirement age of 67 until 2033.

Ouch.  This is not to say that there will be no labour mobility in the next 20 years, but with the general shift in the economy to less labour-intensive modes of production will mean that expanding economy or no, the job opportunities will not be there for many for quite a while.  What do I know, things could change, right?

If I could make accurate economic forecasts I wouldn't be writing my anonymous blog for almost no audience so we can assume there are things I don't know.  Regardless of the accuracy of my model, I would like to see what exactly these protesters intend to happen.  Don't like Bill 78? I've scant sympathy as there is nothing in that "excessive" and "abuse of power" law which will inconvenience anyone who's not invading classrooms and blocking traffic.  The government is corrupt?  No shocker that, but we have a mechanism for throwing the bums out every 4-5 years, so build up a party and get your platform of free education and unicorns for all elected in Charest's place.

All of these movements are problems without viable solutions.  If any of these people can look around at Europe (Greece et al) and remain under the illusion that there is an inexhaustible supply of other peoples' money to pay for their free tuition it's just as well they're not in school right now since education is wasted on them.  Education to me of course means information containing facts, not the hippie/radical feminist/Marxist bullshit the Gender Studies etc. faculty teaches so no wonder expectations are so divorced from reality.

One can rail against the preceding generations for stacking things in their actuarial favour but I fail to see what good that will do the following generations.  Mine (X) is the generation which will bear the brunt of this as we expected to retire at 65 or earlier and now won't be able to.  Life's hard, and we will reap the whirlwind.  It will be a LOT worse for those following us if things aren't reined under control now, and running huge deficits will not accomplish that.  As sad as it is to say, we all have to accept that the skies are not as blue for us as they were for our Boomer parents and grandparents.

Solutions?  Not exactly, but a repeal of the rampant credentialism and grade inflation which has entrenched since the 1960s would be a start.  If it is made attractive once again for companies to hire apprentices or "mail room" level people straight from Secondary school a great deal of money and student debt could be saved.  The days of a "Company" job for life are gone, but something like that could come back with advantages (stability for those who want it) for Labour and Capital.  If it worked before, a version of it could work again.  Banging pots in the streets is not going to help anything unless it by itself can smarten up people and therefore the government that supports it.  I'm not betting on that.