The trigger for me to reactivate this blog was the Crimea crisis, and that is not yet over at time of writing. A number of people have been impressed by how PM Harper is sticking it to the Russians over this, but I don't see the value of it. I'm pretty sure Putin realises that this posturing (authentic as the feelings may be) is political in nature, but it doesn't look to have made any difference on the ground whatsoever.
Putin continues to play his cards close to his vest and my appreciation of the Donetsk basin as the next potential flashpoint is still in play. As the US tries to figure out what Putin plans, I will put out there what I suspect is happening in his head on this.
As stated previously, Russia needs Russians, and there are a lot of them in the eastern Ukraine. That is the grand plan, recreation of as much of the Russian Empire as they can without getting in a (big) shooting war to do so. Second factor, Putin has proven himself a highly adept geopolitical opportunist, which plays into the empire building as well as general manoeuvring. When faced with such inept (America) and beholden (Europe) opposition as Russia is right now, Putin is king of the hill.
Canada is making a principled stand against the annexation of Crimea, but principles are cheap when you have no skin in the game. Crimea is not going back to Ukraine barring force majure and that's not happening. It didn't work so well last time either.
My question is whether the Kremlin's threat assessment of international action in case of "assistance" to Russian-speaking eastern Ukrainians comes up plus or minus. If Putin gains more than he loses, he'll probably go for it. The sanctions we can/will bring to bear are limited in effect on a country as large and endowed with resources as Russia. Equally important, the Chinese and the Indians, as well as most of Central Asia will continue to trade and otherwise work with Russia, China more so if it discomfits the US.
It has also been said that Ukraine had better show some willingness to fight for its' territory, and I think this an excellent point. Russia would beat them handily, but just because you will probably lose isn't sufficient reason to not fight in this case. What does get drowned out in all of this is the political/social mess that Ukraine is, so I have no real faith in their ability to put an effective military force in the field even if they are inclined to do so.
At this point I think military force is the only credible deterrent to Putin, and even then only when it will actually be used. An armed, contested invasion of Ukraine is an undeniable act of war and contravention of international law, and that was enough to get people to defend Kuwait 24 years ago. Ukraine doesn't have the oil of Kuwait, but it does occupy a strategic buffer position in Eurasia, so you'd think the Europeans might take some issue with carving it up.
I suspect that most Europeans consider Ukraine not worth the bones of a single Swabian Panzer Grenadier, so it's up to the Poles and other border countries to stand up and conduct some "exercises" of their own in Ukraine. An attack on the troops of a NATO member would force NATO to act, and forcing NATO to act is in the "minus" column for Putin. As a side note, if NATO isn't prepared to act to counter Russian territorial aggrandizement, it might as well pack it in, as that's what it was set up to do!
Putin could over-reach himself, but under current conditions taking the Russian-majority areas of east Ukraine wouldn't be stretching too far, so consider that. I think the decision on what to do will come in the next few days, and will depend heavily on what the US does. On past performance, I'll bet on Putin having effectively a free hand, whatever that portends.
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