We all gotta duck, When the shit hits the fan.

(Before we start, 10 Punk Points to whoever can recognize the source of the title to this one.)

Ok, This was on my other blog a couple of days back, but things haven't moved much since then, but that could change any time... I'll take bets right now as to if/when Israel invades or otherwise provokes a war with Syria.

Taking this: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5178492.stm as the start point, I can see some geopolitical possibilities and rationale for the next "hot" Mideast war.

The Yanks have been talking for many years now about Syria as a major terrorist sponsor state, and there can be no doubt that along with Iran, they are a major conduit for various terrorist groups and the arms therefore that are playing hob with American and Israeli plans/ideas for the mid east. From there it's not a big step to see Israel buggering Syria badly enough to force some sort of regime change, at the very least.

I've been reading a sampling of mid east blogs, specifically from Egypt and Lebanon, and there's an interesting undercurrent to the expected outrage at the latest Crusader-Zionist outrages in Lebanon and Gaza. To see where I've been looking go here : http://www.sandmonkey.org/

This guy has a quite an atypical outlook for the region, so I'd certainly keep that in mind when reading his stuff and his fellow travelers in the region. That said, the fact that anyone over there is doing anything other than just screaming "Kill the Jews", yadda, yadda, is encouraging to me. However, moderates are vastly outnumbered, more so because by definition the hotheads are willing to crack other heads that don't agree with them, and not a lot of people will speak up in that environment.

Back to the main event. The Americans are too tied up to take out Assad in Syria, let alone deal appropriately with the Iranian government. The Israelis however, have the resources, the motivation, AND the tacit backing of said Americans to to the former job for them, and if they could I'm sure they'd like a crack at Iran too.

So, will Israel continue to bomb the hell out of Lebanon to put the pressure on Hezbollah, or will they, as one of the Lebanese bloggers said, pick on someone their own size, and send the troops knocking on Bashar al-Assad's door?

Damned if I know for sure, but I have my opinions on what should be done. They involve a fight to the finish, and although I'm reluctant to take sides in a messy situation like Israel/Palestine, if I had to see either side come out on top, I'll take the progressive democracy any day.